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ProbBrain · HIGH confidence · crypto Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Market YES 72% Our raw 35% Calibrated 58% Gap 14pp Closes 2028-01-01 Summary The Polymarket market “Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?” is currently trading at a 72% probability of a “YES” outcome. Our calibrated estimate places the true probability at roughly 58%, implying that the market is significantly overpriced on the YES side. The gap of over 14 percentage points (and a raw estimate gap of 37 pp) suggests a strong bias toward NO, and we expect the contract to resolve NO. Why we think the market is mispriced The “FDV above ___” ladder on Predict.fun is designed so that each higher rung must be less likely than the one below it. By construction, the probability of an FDV above $300 M cannot exceed the probability of an FDV above $100 M, which in turn cannot exceed the probability of an FDV above $50 M. Current aggregato...

ProbBrain · HIGH confidence · crypto Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Market YES 79% Our raw 40% Calibrated 65% Gap 14pp Closes 2028-01-01 Summary The Polymarket market “Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?” is currently priced at 0.790 (79% YES). Our calibrated probability is 0.645 (65% YES), meaning the market is significantly overpriced on the YES side. We expect the outcome to resolve NO. Why we think the market is mispriced Predict.fun’s FDV market is a classic laddered structure: each higher threshold is nested inside the lower ones. The same event shows a clear monotonic decay in price – the “>$50M” tier trades between 85 % and 93 %, while the “>$100M” tier sits around 63 %. By definition, the probability of exceeding $200M must be strictly lower than the probability of exceeding $100M. If the $100M tier is 63 %, a price of 79 % for the $200M tier violates this monotonicity constra...