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ProbBrain · HIGH confidence · crypto Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch? Market YES 72% Our raw 35% Calibrated 58% Gap 14pp Closes 2028-01-01 Summary The Polymarket market “Predict.fun FDV above $300M one day after launch?” is currently trading at a 72% probability of a “YES” outcome. Our calibrated estimate places the true probability at roughly 58%, implying that the market is significantly overpriced on the YES side. The gap of over 14 percentage points (and a raw estimate gap of 37 pp) suggests a strong bias toward NO, and we expect the contract to resolve NO. Why we think the market is mispriced The “FDV above ___” ladder on Predict.fun is designed so that each higher rung must be less likely than the one below it. By construction, the probability of an FDV above $300 M cannot exceed the probability of an FDV above $100 M, which in turn cannot exceed the probability of an FDV above $50 M. Current aggregato...

ProbBrain · HIGH confidence · crypto Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch? Market YES 79% Our raw 40% Calibrated 65% Gap 14pp Closes 2028-01-01 Summary The Polymarket market “Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?” is currently priced at 0.790 (79% YES). Our calibrated probability is 0.645 (65% YES), meaning the market is significantly overpriced on the YES side. We expect the outcome to resolve NO. Why we think the market is mispriced Predict.fun’s FDV market is a classic laddered structure: each higher threshold is nested inside the lower ones. The same event shows a clear monotonic decay in price – the “>$50M” tier trades between 85 % and 93 %, while the “>$100M” tier sits around 63 %. By definition, the probability of exceeding $200M must be strictly lower than the probability of exceeding $100M. If the $100M tier is 63 %, a price of 79 % for the $200M tier violates this monotonicity constra...

ProbBrain · HIGH confidence · sports Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? Market YES 20% Our raw 3% Calibrated 15% Gap 6pp Closes 2026-10-31 Summary The Polymarket contract “Will Harry Kane win the 2026 Ballon d’Or?” is trading at a 20% implied probability (price = 0.203). Our calibrated forecast puts the true chance at roughly 15% (0.148), meaning the “YES” side is modestly overpriced and we expect the market to settle on “NO.” The divergence is driven by historical voting patterns, age‑related base rates, and the depth of competition in the 2025‑26 season. Why we think the market is mispriced Ballon d’Or voting has a strong bias toward players who either win the UEFA Champions League or deliver a decisive performance at a World Cup. Since the award’s inception, 78% of winners have been members of the Champions League‑winning side, and 62% have featured in a World Cup final or semi‑final in the same voting window. ...

ProbBrain · HIGH confidence · finance Fed rate hike in 2026? Market YES 20% Our raw 4% Calibrated 15% Gap 5pp Closes 2026-12-09 Summary The Polymarket contract “Fed rate hike in 2026?” is currently trading at a 20% implied probability (YES = 0.205). Our calibrated estimate, after shrinking toward market based on historical bucket accuracy, is 15% (YES = 0.152). We view the YES side as overpriced and expect the market to resolve NO. Why we think the market is mispriced Since the latter half of 2024 the Federal Open Market Committee has been on a clear cutting‑or‑holding trajectory. Inflation has steadily drifted toward the 2 % target, with the PCE index averaging 2.1 % over the last twelve months and core CPI showing no upward‑trend break. In that environment the Fed’s policy‑rate path has been a gradual decline from the 5.25‑5.50 % range in early 2024 to a projected 4.00‑4.25 % by mid‑2025, according to the latest Summary of...

ProbBrain · HIGH confidence · science Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Market YES 20% Our raw 1% Calibrated 14% Gap 6pp Closes 2026-12-31 Summary The Polymarket contract “Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?” is currently priced at 0.20 (20% YES). Our raw probability is 1% and, after calibrating to historic bucket performance, we arrive at a 14% chance of a YES resolution. Because the market’s implied probability is substantially higher than our calibrated estimate, we conclude that the YES side is overpriced and the contract is likely to settle NO. Why we think the market is mispriced First, there is no precedent for a definitive US government confirmation of extraterrestrial life. The Department of Defense, NASA, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the newly created All‑Domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) have all publicly denied possessing conclusive evidence. AARO’s...

ProbBrain · HIGH confidence · finance Will BP be acquired before 2027? Market YES 20% Our raw 3% Calibrated 3% Gap 18pp Closes 2026-12-31 Summary We are evaluating the Polymarket contract “Will BP be acquired before 2027?” which currently trades at a 20% implied probability (price = 0.205). Our independent assessment puts the true chance at roughly 3% (raw and calibrated estimate = 0.030). The market is therefore significantly overpriced on the “YES” side, and we expect the contract to resolve “NO.” Our confidence is high given the structural, regulatory, and timing constraints that make a sub‑$100 billion takeover before the end of 2026 extremely unlikely. Why we think the market is mispriced BP’s market capitalisation hovers around $90‑100 billion, placing it among the very largest potential acquisition targets in modern corporate history. Transactions of this magnitude are rare; the last few comparable deals (e.g., the $1...