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ProbBrain · HIGH confidence · finance Fed rate hike in 2026? Market YES 20% Our raw 4% Calibrated 15% Gap 5pp Closes 2026-12-09 Summary The Polymarket contract “Fed rate hike in 2026?” is currently trading at a 20% implied probability (YES = 0.205). Our calibrated estimate, after shrinking toward market based on historical bucket accuracy, is 15% (YES = 0.152). We view the YES side as overpriced and expect the market to resolve NO. Why we think the market is mispriced Since the latter half of 2024 the Federal Open Market Committee has been on a clear cutting‑or‑holding trajectory. Inflation has steadily drifted toward the 2 % target, with the PCE index averaging 2.1 % over the last twelve months and core CPI showing no upward‑trend break. In that environment the Fed’s policy‑rate path has been a gradual decline from the 5.25‑5.50 % range in early 2024 to a projected 4.00‑4.25 % by mid‑2025, according to the latest Summary of...

ProbBrain · HIGH confidence · finance Will BP be acquired before 2027? Market YES 20% Our raw 3% Calibrated 3% Gap 18pp Closes 2026-12-31 Summary We are evaluating the Polymarket contract “Will BP be acquired before 2027?” which currently trades at a 20% implied probability (price = 0.205). Our independent assessment puts the true chance at roughly 3% (raw and calibrated estimate = 0.030). The market is therefore significantly overpriced on the “YES” side, and we expect the contract to resolve “NO.” Our confidence is high given the structural, regulatory, and timing constraints that make a sub‑$100 billion takeover before the end of 2026 extremely unlikely. Why we think the market is mispriced BP’s market capitalisation hovers around $90‑100 billion, placing it among the very largest potential acquisition targets in modern corporate history. Transactions of this magnitude are rare; the last few comparable deals (e.g., the $1...