Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027 — ProbBrain Polymarket Analysis 2026
ProbBrain · HIGH confidence · science Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Market YES 20% Our raw 1% Calibrated 14% Gap 6pp Closes 2026-12-31 Summary The Polymarket contract “Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?” is currently priced at 0.20 (20% YES). Our raw probability is 1% and, after calibrating to historic bucket performance, we arrive at a 14% chance of a YES resolution. Because the market’s implied probability is substantially higher than our calibrated estimate, we conclude that the YES side is overpriced and the contract is likely to settle NO. Why we think the market is mispriced First, there is no precedent for a definitive US government confirmation of extraterrestrial life. The Department of Defense, NASA, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and the newly created All‑Domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO) have all publicly denied possessing conclusive evidence. AARO’s...