Kelly vs Flat Staking 2026 — Which Wins After 1,000 Bets?
🎰 CryptoBonusHub 𝕏 Follow @ProbBrain Photo via Picsum Two camps in the betting world. Kelly disciples insist size scales with edge — bigger advantage means bigger bet. Flat-staking purists insist consistency is everything — same percentage of bankroll on every bet, regardless of edge size. Who wins after 1,000 bets? We ran the Monte Carlo. The answer is more nuanced than either side will tell you. The two strategies in plain terms Flat staking You bet a fixed percentage of your current bankroll on every bet — typically 1% or 2%. Edge size doesn't change the bet. A 5% edge and a 30% edge both get the same stake. Simple, low variance, easy to execute. Kelly Criterion (fractional) You compute the textbook Kelly fraction f* = (p − m)/(1 − m) for each bet, multiply by a safety factor (typically 0.25), and bet that. Edge size scales the bet directly. Big edges get big bets. Tiny edges get tiny bets. Negative edges get zero bet. The ...